Aj. Dagga Tolar

It is no longer news worldwide that the Tinubu regime, even with its supposed celebration of 25 years of bourgeois “civil rule”—the longest ever in the 64 years since Nigeria’s independence from British colonial rule—has commenced an attack on democratic rights. This is evident with the treason trial set to commence for eleven protesters arrested for participating in and organizing the largely peaceful August 1-10 #EndbadGovernance protest in the country.

The Tinubu regime has turned a deaf ear to the pleas of its citizens to alleviate the excruciating suffering, hunger, mass unemployment, and hyperinflation in the country. Instead, it has chosen to make an example of these eleven individuals—Michael Adaramoye, Abiodun Abayomi, Suleiman Yakubu, Opaluwa Eleojo Simon, Angel Love Innocent, Buhari Lawal, Mosiu Sadiq, Bashir Bello, Nurudeen Khamis, Abduldalam Zubair, and Daniel Akande—to discourage any form of resistance against its anti-poor policies of deregulation and privatization of the economy.

The federal government’s recent actions demonstrate a troubling disregard for democratic principles and a clear intent to intimidate. On November 1, they brought 76 protesters to trial—individuals who have languished in detention since August, many of whom are minors and appear malnourished. Charged with mutiny and treason—crimes punishable by death—this prosecution appears aimed solely at crushing the determination of the working masses who are standing up against oppressive policies that continue to deepen the country’s hardships.

These charges against peaceful protesters reveal the government’s intent to criminalize the right to protest, a fundamental democratic right, by equating it with treason. Such extreme measures are designed to silence dissent and suppress any attempt by citizens to organize against an economic system that has failed them.

It is evident that the government, controlled by a wealthy elite with no interest in reversing the country’s economic misfortunes, seeks only to protect its own privileges. Regardless of religion, ethnicity, or region, these elites benefit from the status quo and have no intention of initiating genuine change to address the unbearable conditions facing the majority of Nigerians.

No better indication of this can be found than the popular term for the Tinubu regime on the street: “T-pain.” Three increases in petrol prices within a two-week period have taken the cost per litre to N1,050—a 430% increase since May 29, 2023, when Tinubu came to power, along with the false claim that the subsidy was over and trillions were saved in just two months. However, the new price increases only mean that the so-called saved money has disappeared, and more burdens must be placed on the working masses to continue guaranteeing super-profits for the oil-baron-importing marketers and the Dangote refinery.

Nigeria should not be in this mess at all, not with it being an oil-producing country, selling as much as 1.5 million barrels of crude per day at a current price of around $73 USD per barrel. One can begin to imagine the wealth at its disposal—not even counting other sources of income, mineral deposits, taxes, etc. But simply put, this wealth is squandered by the ruling class, both past and present. Obasanjo, a two-time ruler of the country, recently stated that he left behind 70 billion dollars in the country’s treasury from his tenure from 1999-2007, which has now disappeared, along with everything earned since then. While agreeing that corruption is a problem, and with Obasanjo himself also implicated, the fact remains that it is the adherence of the ruling class to capitalism and the dictates of the IMF and World Bank that prevents the ruling class from investing the country’s wealth in building new refineries and developing the means of production, let alone having them under workers’ democratic control and management.

For four decades, nonstop since 1982, starting with Austerity Measures, successive regimes—both military and civilian—have continued with IMF/World Bank policies, achieving nothing except conserving the country’s wealth for debt servicing a fictitious debt and enabling the ruling elites to loot its wealth.

This was confirmed in a recent statement from the NLC by Joe Ajaero, pointing out complicity and involvement in all of the subsidy removal regimes in Nigeria and Africa at large. But this is not enough. Simply being critical of the IMF and World Bank without recognizing that the Tinubu regime—and, by extension, the ruling class—are the very agents through which this neoliberal policy has been implemented for decades short-changes the truth. When it is clear that only a full mobilization of the working masses into the arena of struggle against the Tinubu regime can ultimately force the regime to reverse its trend, labour leaders in both the NLC and TUC remain unwilling to take up this historical task of providing the needed leadership with which the working masses can challenge the Tinubu regime. Is it a case of shying away from persecution or a case of collaboration with the ruling class?

What is clear is that the quagmire of capitalism would continue to keep Nigeria in an abyss and worsen the plight of the working masses, while the ruling elites and those around them enjoy the best luxuries. Yet, regime apologists keep deluding themselves that these so-called reforms, which are literally choking the life out of the working masses and making survival necessities unaffordable, are the only solution to reversing the country’s ill-fortunes. It continues to drain blood from the veins of the working masses as if it were a cure for anaemia. The Movement for Socialist Alternative outrightly rejects this, insisting that only a complete reversal of these policies of deregulation and a focus on using the country’s wealth to meet the needs of the working masses will breathe life back into the economy.

It is capitalism and its rabid nature of market madness, unendingly running riot with its singular logic and greed for profit as its driving force, that needs to be ditched. To continue to delude the working masses that healthy rivalry among competing capitalists will bring prices down and guarantee fuel at the filling station is a complete mirage. Under capitalism, profit—not the people’s needs—comes first. The fuel importers and oil barons assure us that “123 million litres will hit the market,” and the Dangote Refinery promises that “53% of petrol production” will be exclusively reserved for the Nigerian market. This is supposed to reassure the working masses that prices will soon fall, but, in reality, a full-blown war is on between both sides—a war for market domination.

On one side, the importers aim to keep refineries non-functional to preserve their own profits, taking exception to the entry of the Dangote Refinery. Despite repeated government injections of funds, such as the approved “$1.5 billion for the rehabilitation of the Port Harcourt Refinery in 2021,” nothing has been done. Those who once claimed that a functional Dangote Refinery would solve Nigeria’s issues now find themselves without a leg to stand on. The oil marketers, faced with the potential loss of profits, have taken steps both inside and outside the government to ensure that imported petroleum products, their lifeline, remain cheaper than fuel from Dangote—a situation that Dangote himself has now accepted.

As previously noted, neither side represents the interests of the working masses, nor does they mean any good for the country. As long as profit remains their primary motivation, they will eventually find a way to collude, ensuring mutual profits while the working masses continue to suffer and are deprived of access to this natural resource. We continue to insist that Nigeria is rich enough to build new refineries to meet the working masses’ needs for cheap and affordable fuel, while also producing enough to export to neighbouring countries and eliminate fuel smuggling in border towns.

The NLC and TUC can no longer remain idle; shying away from leading the fight against the ruling class only enables further suffering for the working masses. Only by calling for a general strike—a 48-hour strike in the first instance to mobilize the masses across divides against the Tinubu regime—can the labour unions avoid historical blame. This will inevitably raise the question of power. History, from the general strikes in the 2000s to the Occupy Nigeria protests in 2011, shows that the government retreats only to later implement new price hikes. This indicates that a political party of the working masses must emerge from these struggles to channel their quest for political power, capable of ending capitalist misrule by nationalizing the commanding heights of the economy under a Socialist Alternative manifesto led by a working people’s government.

History has already laid out the course of inevitable events. From its pages, we see that the working masses will ultimately find the courage to resist, organizing and mobilizing with the working class leading other oppressed strata. Under the Tinubu regime, which perpetuates pain and misery for the working masses, Nigeria will continue to drift aimlessly unless change is sought. Remember the struggle against the annulment of the June 1993 election and the fight to end military dictatorship. It was the independent initiative of the working masses that forced the Babangida regime to relinquish power, following protests on July 5, 1993, led by a coalition of working-class organizations. This is why the MSA insists on the working masses’ resolute stance and calls on all working-class organizations to continue educating and mobilizing for an inevitable struggle with the Tinubu regime. Resistance is inevitable.

No wing of the ruling class can be relied upon. None of the bourgeois political parties will act differently—not even the Labour Party, registered by the trade union, which is now overrun by rival politicians from both the APC and the PDP. Without reclaiming the Labour Party and filling its ranks with the masses, the LP will lead nowhere.

Despite the Tinubu regime’s ongoing prosecution of protesters under treason charges, it will inevitably back down if confronted with a mass movement. Even if labour leaders continue to avoid their historical duty, history indicates that leaders and a program will emerge from within the ranks of the working masses to spearhead the life-saving resistance against the Tinubu regime. We firmly believe this course of events is inevitable, and no amount of repression will prevent it. Oppressing the masses to the point of crushing them will only intensify the desire for life over death. Revolution is on the horizon.

Building necessary unity among all left-leaning and working-class organizations is essential to seize the initiative and provide leadership if the trade union leaders continue to abstain. The #EndbadGovernance protest has demonstrated this possibility: its ten days of protest began with the features of a general strike, with nearly all workplaces closed and millions staying home, showing the way forward. Free all detained protesters. End the treason trial of the ELEVEN now. Protest is a democratic right, not a crime. For a 48-hour warning GENERAL STRIKE as a first step, to build the momentum needed to challenge the Tinubu regime and end the capitalist mismanagement of Nigeria’s wealth and resources.