No Trust in the Opposition of Any Wing of the Ruling Class!

Only the Mass of the Working People can Truly Free Themselves & the Country

By Aj. Dagga Tolar

Come May 29, 2025, the Tinubu regime will be two years down and out of its four-year term, and already, all the tell-tale signs and actions going forward point to nothing but a blind pursuit of a second tenure and re-election come 2027. What this portends is that governance, from now on, will be on autopilot and suspended in midair, as every structure—party, state organs, public officers, and institutions—will be tasked with only one singular act: re-election by every means necessary. Already, all shades of apologists of the regime are screaming it loud that there is “No Vacancy in Aso Rock.” According to Joe Igbokwe: “Nigeria is being reworked to work again.”

But what is the true picture of things on the ground? Who is Nigeria really working for? Certainly for the few members of the billionaire club and the Tinubu wing of the ruling class and their cronies—definitely not for the working masses and the vast majority of the poor, unemployed, artisans, traders, youths, and students in the country. Can the working masses endure the next two years, and another four of more of the same pains and sufferings, without the bold initiative of organising a mass resistance against the unending attacks on living conditions in the country?

Why are the trade unions growing increasingly silent? Has the trade union bureaucracy, currently led by Joe Ajaero of the NLC and Festus Usifo of the TUC given up on protecting and defending the interests of workers against these attacks from the Tinubu regime? The rising cost of inflation, the devalued currency, the supposed removal of subsidy from petroleum products, the increase in electricity tariffs, and even the continued shutdown of the national grid without any form of compensation to consumers—all point to a government deeply disconnected from the people. The increased state of insecurity in the country is a clear indication that the Tinubu regime has outrightly failed to address any of the root causes of the ethnic and sectarian-driven conflicts in the Middle Belt, which are increasingly making their way into the southern part of the country.

If anything, there can be no appeal for patience or more time, as put forward by the apologists of the Tinubu regime, claiming that ultimately the reforms will pay off. The point must be made that there is nothing new or ingenious about the economic programme of the Tinubu regime. These are the same neoliberal, anti-people policy programmes that the ruling class in Nigeria has imposed on the country since the mid-1980s—when the Babangida military dictatorship in 1989 fully pronounced that there was “No Alternative to the Structural Adjustment Programme,” as packaged and dictated by the IMF/World Bank.

The scorecard then and now, under succeeding regimes both military and civilian, has consistently shown a continued battering of the economy and a worsening of the living conditions of the working masses. Beyond a bubble speculative economy in capital that has enriched a few—we saw them gathered at the recent book launch hosted by Babangida, raising a donation of N16 billion, including the likes of Dangote, Abdulsamad Rabiu, Theophilus Danjuma, Arthur Eze, Folorunsho Alakija, and a host of undisclosed cronies who all hugely benefited from these policies at the time—the situation remains unchanged across regimes, including that of Tinubu.

Nothing has changed in this regard. The Tinubu regime is building its own machine of big boys and girls who are largely benefitting and enriching themselves, while the working masses are condemned to face even more hard knocks and excruciating, life-snuffing policies.

Who benefits from the N1 trillion that the Tinubu regime claimed it saved in three months after subsidy was removed? Across 24 months, it follows that N8 trillion has been saved. Where is this huge sum? What about the increased drive for revenue on all fronts? How is it that the debt profile has increased to the sum of $28.91 trillion (N142 trillion) on account of new borrowings and the devaluation of the currency?

The recent announcement that the presidency has finally given up on its own reform programme in the electricity sector—its programme of increased tariffs to attract investors and make electricity available—is telling. N10 billion has been approved to install solar panels in Aso Rock (https://punchng.com/high-bills-presidency-budgets-n10bn-for-solar-power/). The working masses are left to their fate, to pay more and enrich the Discos, without any improvement in electricity generation to meet their domestic needs or the industrial requirement of the country. .

WHY CONTINUE ON THE SAME NEOLIBERAL CAPITALIST RUINOUS PATH?

Why must the country continue on the same ruinous path? Of concern to us is that the trade unions in the early 21st century played a positive role in mobilising opposition against these policies. What has changed? This question is already being posed—and responded to—on the streets, as working-class youths continue to demonstrate that they can seize the initiative and provide leadership for the mass movement against the ruling class. From the 2020 #EndSARS protest against police brutality, to the #EndHunger protest, and the #EndBadGovernance protest in August 2024.

Repression is an ever-constant weapon of the ruling class, and throughout history, if there is any lesson to be drawn, it is that it has never been enough to halt or prevent the working masses from organising independently to defend their rights and build resistance. But as it is, the attempt to weaken the mass movement is, in itself, a further demonstration of both the regime’s weakness and its desperation to cling to power by all means. The criminalisation of protest, the treason trial of 11 peaceful protesters arrested during the #EndBadGovernance protest in Abuja—Akande Daniel, Adaramoye Micheal Lenin, Mosiu Sodiq, Angel Love Innocent, Adeyemi Abiodun Abayomi, Buhari Lawal, Bashir Bello, Suleiman Yakubu, Opaoluwa Eleojo Simon, Nuradeen Khamis and Abdulsalam Zubairu—must not deter us from organising and defending democratic rights. Nor must it lead to dismissing the role of a mobilised and organised working class in the mass movement.

Marxists, no doubt, applaud all of these efforts on the street by working-class youths. But a key lesson from it is that through such actions show the working masses that the path to liberation is struggle, and then encourage them to come fully into the arena of struggle, to take on the ruling class blow for blow, and wrestle power from its grip. This is still a long way off, but it is significant to note that a new generation of working-class youths are emerging on the scene—and Marxists must place before them the ideas and programme of scientific socialism through interventions in such movements and struggles of working class youths. There is a need to develop, from their ranks, new cadres who will help orient the working class both inside the trade unions and outside in the communities—urban and rural—with the sole goal of preparing the working class to rise up to the task of providing leadership for the whole of the oppressed working masses in the fight against the ruling class.

And this is why the question of politics is of great significance. What will happen come 2027? Who or where will the working masses turn to? Elections are, for the working masses, a point of least resistance. This point was clearly demonstrated in the 2023 General Elections with the Labour Party garnering as much as 6 million votes. But the Tinubu regime is not sitting idly by. It will go all out, even against bourgeois opposition—internally within the APC or outside of it. This is the very basis for the declaration of a state of emergency in Rivers State, leading to the removal of the Governor, Deputy Governor, and the suspension of the State House of Assembly. This action is a direct attack on the bourgeois opposition and a violation of the very constitution on which the Tinubu regime claims its legitimacy. Clearly, Tinubu is here exhibiting his desperation ahead of the 2027 General Elections to win Rivers State. Wike, who was originally tasked with this assignment and gifted a ministerial appointment to head the FCT Abuja for all his antics in 2023 from within the PDP, is being fully supported with federal might. Tinubu will employ all means to win over PDP governors to outrighly join him or support his 2027 reelection.

The same Wike continues to be a destabilising factor in the PDP, which he has refused to vacate. Tinubu’s tactic is, no doubt, aimed at taking away as many serving governors of the PDP—and their state treasuries—from supporting Atiku, who is already preparing to contend with Tinubu again come 2027.

NO TRUST IN THE OPPOSITION OF ANY WING OF THE RULING CLASS!

The current attempt to build a new opposition force with El-Rufai’s decamping from the APC to the SDP, on the basis of the complete capture of the former by Tinubu, should not elicit any form of hope among the working masses. Whether fronting for Atiku, for himself, or for any possible united bourgeois opposition against Tinubu—even if the opposition led by Atiku or Obi succeeds in uniting its efforts as the march to 2027 intensifies and sends Tinubu packing—nothing fundamental will change. There will be no reversal of the neoliberal capitalist policy thrust of the economy, outside of a change of faces and some cosmetic steps aimed at appeasing the working masses.

The working masses can only rely on themselves and on their own organisation—not on any other wing of the ruling class. The Buhari and Tinubu examples, as oppositions who came to power, are enough to demonstrate that they will not break with capitalism. If anything, they will entrench it further to impoverish the working masses.

CAN THE LABOUR PARTY OFFER ANY LIGHT IN THIS DARK TUNNEL?

As positive and welcoming as it is that the Supreme Court judgment recognises the Labour Party’s (LP) constitution as the ultimate determinant of the leadership of the party, this singular act does not by itself transform the LP into a platform that can now serve the interest of the working masses’ quest for an independent political organ of their own.

The rival claimants to the leadership of the party—by both  Julius Abure and other party bureaucrats on one end, and the Madam Nenadi Usman-led caretaker committee largely dominated by forces from the PDP and those around Peter Obi and Alex Otti continue to rattle the LP. These two wings are not different. A pointer to this is the fact that Otti and co. are dangling before Abure the carrot to come and be the Chair of the Board of Trustees of the party—even against the expressed wishes of trade union leaders.

The Trade Unions as owners of the LP must therefore go beyond the wide cry for workers to take over the structure of the party on account of the Supreme Court judgment. It must first take steps to organise discussions/summits inside the trade unions and outside of them, with pro-labour platforms and allies in the Joint Action Front and other civil society organisations, to examine and review Labour’s intervention in politics—and the steps to take both in the immediate and long term—either with a view to fully reclaiming the LP or starting to organise afresh, drawing all the key lessons from past efforts to build an alternative platform for the working masses.

Only the working masses can define the way forward for themselves and for the country—if only they become organised and bring their numbers to people the streets, asserting the necessary pressure not just on the Tinubu regime, but on the ruling class as a whole to act in their favour. They must learn from past movements, both against military dictatorship and from the successful General Strikes between 2000–2007, that they must constitute themselves into a political force of their own—and seek to independently seize political power for themselves as a class.

Anything short of the above will continue to give the edge to the Tinubu regime and the ruling class. And to the members of the billionaire club and international finance capital, what matters is not who is in power, but a guarantee that capitalism will not be upstaged, and that the working masses can continue to wallow in misery amidst the abundant wealth and resources of the country.

The quest to end the hellhole that Nigeria has become is not to be found in Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope Agenda” when these two years have demonstrated that it is the same ruinous neoliberal capitalist policies of past regimes that are responsible for the very woes Tinubu once lamented against while in opposition. It is for the working masses to launch out on a new path, organise themselves to resist any further attacks on both working and living conditions, and ultimately build the necessary strength to pose the question of power—and contend as a class to win political power and transform society on a manifesto of Socialist Alternative.