Abdulahi Bilal

President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s 2026 Democracy Day address was crafted to project confidence, progress, and hope. The President painted a picture of a country steadily advancing under his leadership, claiming success in economic management, improvements in security, and a deepening of democratic governance. Also, it is to reinforce the legitimacy of his administration by conferring national honours on personalities associated with the June 12 struggle.

Yet beyond the polished rhetoric and official optimism lies a harsh reality that millions of ordinary Nigerians confront daily. For workers, youths, farmers, traders, and the poor, the Nigeria being celebrated by Tinubu bears little resemblance to the country they experience. The speech was less an honest assessment of the state of the nation and more an attempt to market policies that have intensified hardship, widened inequality, and failed to address the fundamental crises facing the country.

Economic Freedom for Whom?

One central theme of the president Tinubu’s speech was the claim that his administration’s economic reforms have restored stability and credibility to Nigeria’s economy. According to the President, difficult reforms were necessary to rescue public finances and secure “economic freedom” for Nigerians.

For the vast majority, however, these reforms have translated into unprecedented suffering. The removal of the fuel subsidy and the floating of the naira have triggered the worst cost-of-living crisis in decades. Since their introduction, fuel prices have risen by several hundred percent, transportation costs have skyrocketed, electricity tariffs have increased repeatedly, and food prices have become unaffordable for millions.

The National Bureau of Statistics consistently reports inflation at levels among the highest in Nigeria’s recent history. Food inflation has devastated working-class families, many of whom now skip meals or survive on a single meal per day. Average wages have remained stagnant while prices rise relentlessly.

What Tinubu describes as economic reform is experienced by ordinary people as economic punishment. The President speaks of attracting investors and restoring market confidence, but a fundamental question remains unanswered: What is the purpose of economic growth if it does not improve the living conditions of the people? The failure of the Tinubu administration’s economic policies to shield small businesses from the worsening economic crisis has had devastating consequences for the productive sector. According to the Nigerian Economic Summit Group (NESG), the harsh economic environment forced approximately 30 percent of Micro, Small and Medium Enterprises (MSMEs) in Nigeria to shut down between 2023 and 2024. This represents about 7.2 million businesses out of the country’s estimated 24 million MSMEs.

Corporate profits have increased in several sectors while workers’ purchasing power has collapsed. Banks have posted record earnings. Oil marketers have benefited enormously from deregulation. Large multinational corporations continue to receive incentives. Meanwhile, public hospitals lack basic equipment, public schools remain underfunded, and millions of young people remain unemployed or underemployed.

This contradiction exposes the class character of Tinubu’s economic programme. It is designed primarily to satisfy international financial institutions, big business interests, and the elites, while shifting the burden of adjustment onto the poor.

The Myth of Economic Stability

The President argued that his administration inherited an economy under strain and that its reforms have restored stability. But stability cannot be measured by macroeconomic indicators alone.

An economy is not stable when workers cannot afford transportation to work. It is not stable when graduates roam the streets without jobs. It is not stable when pensioners die waiting for payments. It is not stable when millions of households spend most of their income on food alone. The country’s annual headline inflation rate rose to 15.69% in April 2026 and accelerated further to 15.93% in May 2026, marking three consecutive months of upward price pressures according to the National Bureau of Statistics.

Even where government officials point to improvements in foreign reserves or investment figures, such statistics become meaningless when ordinary Nigerians experience declining living standards. The real measure of economic success should be whether people can live decent lives. By that standard, Tinubu’s economic policies have failed.

Security: Billions Spent, Yet Insecurity Persists

Perhaps the most glaring contradiction in the President’s speech concerns security. Tinubu highlighted the recruitment of thousands of security personnel and the allocation of over ₦5 trillion to defence and security in the 2026 budget, describing it as the largest security allocation in Nigerian history.

Yet insecurity remains widespread. Kidnapping has become an industry. Rural communities continue to face attacks from bandits and armed groups. Farmers are unable to cultivate their lands safely, contributing further to food shortages and inflation. Entire communities in parts of the North-West, North-East, and North-Central live under constant fear. According to a security assessment by Amnesty International, at least 1,100 people were abducted in mass kidnapping incidents across northern Nigeria alone between January and April 2026. In May, 46 people including 39 children and 7 teachrs were kidnapped from schools in Oyo state.

The recent abductions and attacks acknowledged even by the President himself demonstrate that the crisis remains far from resolved. The question Nigerians must ask is simple: where is all the money going?

Year after year, security budgets increase while insecurity persists. Billions are allocated, yet citizens remain unsafe. This suggests the problem is not merely funding but the systemic corruption, inefficiency, and lack of accountability that characterise the Nigerian state. A government genuinely committed to ending insecurity would not only spend more money but also address the social and economic conditions that fuel violence: poverty, unemployment, inequality, and state neglect.

June 12 and the Politics of National Honours

Tinubu used the occasion to confer national honours on several individuals associated with the struggle for democracy and the June 12 movement. Recognising those who fought against military dictatorship is important. Many activists, journalists, workers, and pro-democracy campaigners made enormous sacrifices for democratic freedoms.

However, the deeper question is whether the ideals for which they fought have been realised. The struggle of June 12 was not simply about replacing military rulers with civilian politicians. It was fundamentally about justice, accountability, democratic rights, and a society that serves ordinary people.

Today, many of those aspirations remain unfulfilled. Nigeria continues to witness attacks on democratic rights. Protesters face harassment and arrests. Elections are increasingly characterised by voter apathy and declining confidence. Corruption remains entrenched. Public institutions continue to serve elite interests rather than the masses.

National honours cannot substitute for genuine democratic transformation. There is a degree of irony in celebrating democracy while millions of Nigerians feel increasingly excluded from the political process. Democracy cannot be reduced to periodic elections while economic and political power remains concentrated in the hands of a tiny elite.

Twenty-Seven Years of Democracy: Progress or Stagnation?

The President celebrated Nigeria’s 27 years of uninterrupted civilian rule as evidence of democratic success. Certainly, the defeat of the military dictatorship was an important gain.

But democracy must be judged not only by the absence of military rule but by the extent to which it improves the lives of the people. After nearly three decades of civilian rule, Nigeria remains one of the countries with the highest levels of poverty and inequality in the world. Public education is in crisis. Healthcare remains inaccessible to millions. Infrastructure deficits persist.

The wealth generated by Nigeria’s vast natural resources continues to benefit a privileged minority while the majority struggle to survive. This is not the democracy envisioned by the working people who struggled against the annulment  of June 12 elections.

The failure of Tinubu’s policies is not simply the failure of one administration. It reflects the bankruptcy of the capitalist model that has dominated Nigeria since the return to civilian rule.

Whether under APC or PDP governments, the same neoliberal policies have been pursued: privatisation, deregulation, commercialisation, and attacks on public services. The result has been greater wealth for a tiny elite and deeper poverty for the majority.

Nigeria needs a fundamentally different path. A path to Socialism that would place the needs of people above profit. It would bring key sectors of the economy under democratic public ownership and control. The enormous wealth generated from oil, gas, mining, and banking would be used to fund quality education, healthcare, housing, and infrastructure.

Rather than enriching a handful of billionaires, economic resources would be directed towards creating jobs, raising wages, and improving living standards. Security would be addressed not only through policing but through tackling the social conditions that breed violence and criminality. Most importantly, democracy would extend beyond elections to include democratic control of the economy and meaningful participation of workers, youths, and communities in decision-making.

Conclusion

Tinubu’s Democracy Day speech attempted to present an image of a nation moving steadily towards prosperity and stability. But beneath the official narrative lies a reality of deepening hardship, persistent insecurity, and growing inequality.

The President may celebrate economic reforms, but workers celebrate neither hunger nor poverty. He may speak of security gains, but communities under attack know otherwise. He may confer honours on the heroes of June 12, but the true tribute to those heroes would be the creation of a society based on justice, equality, and genuine democracy.

The task before Nigerians is therefore not merely to defend democracy from military rule but to rescue it from elite capture. The struggle for political freedom must be linked to the struggle for economic emancipation. Only a socialist transformation of society can ensure that Nigeria’s immense wealth serves the many rather than the few. Until then, democracy will remain incomplete, prosperity will remain elusive, and the promises contained in speeches will continue to clash with the realities of everyday life.