CAN THE WORKING MASSES RELY ON ATIKU OR OBI TO BE ANY DIFFERENT FROM TINUBU, IF ELECTED?

THE OPTION BEFORE THE WORKING MASSES IS EITHER REVOLUTIONARY CHANGE OR A CHANGE FOR THE CONTINUATION OF CAPITALIST-INDUCED MASS MISERY & DEEPENING POVERTY

– Aj. Dagga Tolar

The general elections are just around the corner. The truth, however, is that there is no particular excitement in the air. If anything, it edges the country further to a crossroads, and the working masses must confront the options before them. Is the Tinubu regime likely to be re-elected or returned to Aso Rock? Unmindful of all the inflictions of additional pain and misery, worsening living conditions, and failure to make a break away from the same ruinous capitalist policies and chart a new direction for the economy that will put the interests of the working masses first and foremost, as opposed to those of the members of the billionaire club, which has been the singular focus of Tinubu since coming to power in 2023. Or is the lot going to fall on Abubakar Atiku or Peter Obi, the two leading bourgeois presidential candidates, who are, in terms of programme, no different from Tinubu?

What version of history is about to be farcically repeated? Is it 2015, which saw Muhammadu Buhari defeating an incumbent Goodluck Jonathan even without the necessary cohesion among the bourgeois opposition, or is it going to be a win for Tinubu with the classical use of the power of incumbency to return himself to power? These are the posers that the working masses must confront and, painfully, none of the above scenarios offers any way out of the deepening mass misery that the working masses have been plunged into since the inception of the Fourth Republic in 1999.

Indeed, what is democratic about elections is the pretentious deceit that government emanates from the people on the basis of the electoral principle of franchise that grants the democratic right, through the ballot box, for the working masses to participate in the electoral process. This right to vote and be voted for is celebrated as the defining essence of bourgeois democracy, never mind that, in reality, even the working masses cannot choose to be voted for. Bourgeois democracy is big business and enterprise for members of the billionaire club, meaning that, in reality, the working masses only have the right to vote for anyone among the lot of bourgeois candidates and competing members of the different wings of the ruling elite.

ATIKU AND OBI: CAN THE WORKING MASSES RELY ON ATIKU OR OBI?

Obasanjo, who is Obi’s main ruling-class supporter, has again returned to attacking Atiku, of course without stating the obvious that he is not fit to be president, referring to the series of betrayals and corruption charges against him, with the latest being allegations of bribing the leadership of the then National Assembly to have him impeached as President when he served as Vice President between 1999 and 2007.

The question of who steps down for whom fuels the dispute between Atiku and Obi, the latter having even been the vice-presidential candidate to the former in the 2019 elections. Briefly together as members of the African Democratic Congress, before Obi shipped out to the National Democratic Congress to pick the presidential ticket with Kwankwaso as Vice President.

While Atiku has called for the focus and attention to be on the Tinubu regime and not against each other, it is clear that the banter, even if it eases directly, will be continued by supporters. The point, however, must be made that, given the outright refusal to break with capitalism, the entirety of the bourgeoisie has no grounds, moral or otherwise, to come against Tinubu with regard to his economic policies.

Its antics are to once again aim at the question of Tinubu’s qualifications with regard to his educational credentials or the supposed “identity theft” controversy, even now as a pre-election issue in the courts, which will do nothing whatsoever to hurt Tinubu’s chances at the polls. You would expect the bourgeois opposition, as led by Atiku and Obi, to know this much, but they would rather hang on every straw instead of doing the necessary legwork to win the working masses over, not just to come out and vote but also to lead a struggle against all of the economic policies that are, in reality, responsible for the conditions that have worsened and thrown the working masses to the cleaners. To do the above would mean that they would commit class suicide by coming out against capitalism. This they will not and cannot do, laying the path open for Tinubu to most likely return himself to power.

THE JUDICIAL SOMERSAULTS

“Tinubu no send anybody” will be an appropriate street parlance to describe the situation. He is doing everything possible. Tinubu has even been quoted as saying that he “won’t give them a red carpet. I won’t offer them a leash to tie me and rope me. No, we wrestle each other to the finish point,” and true to the above sentiments, he is playing cards at all the tables. From interventions through indirect surrogates acting on behalf of his interests in the bourgeois opposition parties, to cross-carpeting and bringing as many governors under his control by both the carrot of cash largesse and the stick of prosecution if, out of power, they refuse to play ball with him. The governors, as de facto heads, are expected to deliver their states by all means necessary; this is only a euphemism for rigging the polls.

Even this is not enough. The judiciary is part of the game plan, falsely christened as the “last hope of the common man.” In reality, a majority of its pronouncements clearly place the Tinubu regime as the main beneficiary of all the judicial somersaults of judgments and counter-judgments in court, serving to destabilise the opposition parties. The point must be made that civil rule itself will be the loser here in the end if the democratic right of the opposition, either bourgeois or otherwise, is stifled and prevented from freely organising to electorally take it on.

However, with INEC, the electoral body, already out with a timetable for the elections and campaign activities set to start from August, we can safely conclude that all of this was only aimed at slowing down the efforts of the opposition parties through as much internal wrangling as possible, even to the point of threatening Atiku and Obi at different times that their names would not be on the ballot to contest the elections. The Tinubu regime feels confident enough to let INEC roll on with its calendar with the opposition divided against itself. The Tinubu regime is overconfident that the bird is already shot and caught in the bag; victory for it at the polls is sealed and delivered.

“Before I was born, there was hunger in this country.” – Tinubu

It explains the level of sheer arrogance and self-entitlement that is displayed in this statement addressed by Tinubu to Catholic bishops who sought an audience with him to present to the President the dire state of the country. It exposes the entirety of the ruling class, that it is not in power to address any of the concerns of the working masses. Political power is only an instrument to defend class rule, which is interpreted to mean nothing more than preserving access to the wealth and resources of the country by private capital.

The question of mass unemployment, housing, and education as vehicles through which hunger can be combated is never and will never be on the agenda. Here we have it: the working masses should not allow themselves to be deceived. A returned Tinubu will not act or govern the country any differently from what we have already seen. No illusion should be sown that he will act any differently from his first term. Tinubu will, as usual, seek to consolidate his hold on power and will necessarily become vicious. It is also not impossible that he could, like others before him, seek to extend his rule in one form or another, if not directly, then certainly indirectly by installing a successor, as he had done in Lagos, guaranteeing the extension of his rule through another face.

It follows, therefore, that only the working masses can take up the challenge to go squarely against the Tinubu regime and actually contend against it. Painfully, the trade unions have not fully taken the lead here to provide the necessary leadership for such a movement. It explains why, as we saw two years ago, the lot fell on working-class youth on the streets to provide an example that truly the working masses can be mobilised to take to the streets to express their displeasure against the Tinubu regime.

TINUBU REGIME’S DATE WITH HISTORY WILL CERTAINLY COME

The Tinubu regime might feel all-powerful with its control of the national treasury, the right to offer appointments to cronies, and bring the whole of the ruling class into its machine as the singular dominant force of the ruling class in Nigeria. However, the working masses have history on their side. A peep into history shows that others before him employed the same versions or measures of antics to retain power, but in the end, the working masses overcame them all.

Earlier than Tinubu were Babangida, Abacha, and Obasanjo. There are no antics or tricks that can be pulled out of the hat that have not been brought into the game before to hold the working masses down or to hold on to power permanently. In the end, all of the regimes mentioned fell. It required the working masses to directly come into the arena of struggle to end military dictatorship. With Obasanjo, the trade unions, interestingly, provided the leadership to take on Obasanjo, opposing the imposition of anti-people policies of deregulation and privatisation. The same Adams Oshiomhole who led the trade unions then has since crossed into the ranks of the ruling class, first as Governor of Edo State, then Chairman of the APC, and currently as a Senator, with no fundamental improvement. This conduct is nothing but a betrayal of the expectations of the working masses from him. In refusing to build a party of the working people to contend with the ruling class on a working-class ticket and programme, as opposed to his trajectory of joining the ranks of the ruling class to act and function in defence of its interests.

The collapse of the three previous republics was directly connected to the last elections held before their demise. The elections were highly manipulated by those in power against the very expectations and votes of the working masses, thereby providing a veritable excuse for the military to strike. It follows, therefore, that the greater danger to bourgeois democracy is not only its implementation of anti-people capitalist policies of the ruling elite in power, but also the refusal to grant the democratic right to the working masses to organise opposition against it.

TWO YEARS OF THE #ENDBADGOVERNANCE PROTEST

The lessons that we draw from this protest, as with the #EndSARS protest as well in 2020, is the willingness of working-class youth to come all out against the ruling elite. And in spite of the killings, arrests, and the clamping of treason charges and trials on peaceful protesters, events have proven the agitators correct that nothing fundamentally will change. But, like with the #EndSARS protest, the point must be re-emphasised that working-class youth and students, even with all their energy and vigour, cannot single-handedly take on the ruling class. Ultimately, all of the issues and challenges are not just a question of governance and power, but also of the class for whom governance and power are exercised.

This is where the question of a party of the working class must be sharply posed and fought for with all the necessary strength and energy inside the trade unions, even independently of the trade union bureaucrats, directly in the workplaces, communities, and on campuses. A party built by the working masses on a Socialist Alternative Manifesto.

If and when the trade unions continue to fail to provide the lead, the initiative to organise from below must be taken up by working-class activists and socialists, posing not just the challenge of organising a mass movement against the ruling class as currently represented by the Tinubu regime, but also against capitalism, and seeking to replace it with a Workers’ and Farmers’ Government.

THE WAY FORWARD

The only way forward is to put in place a working-class political alternative programme that will seek to mobilise the working masses to come into the arena of struggle, to get organised in the workplaces, campuses, and communities. For the convocation of a Constituent Assembly or Sovereign National Conference with all powers to define the function of governance as, first and foremost, an act to defend the wellbeing and welfare of the working masses and not that of big business. This will also entail a discussion on the economy and see to it that the commanding sectors of the economy are nationalised to free up the wealth and resources of the country to be used to meet the needs of the working masses.

It will also take on the task of deconstructing the existing colonial state, replacing it with a Workers’ and Peasants’ State, with power flowing from the organs of the working masses through their elected representatives, who will be subject to immediate recall and will earn the average skilled worker’s wage.