the struggle for genuine liberation demands a socialist alternative to capitalist decay.

By Lateef Adams

On October 1, 1960, Nigeria gained its independence. Sixty-five years later, the corrupt capitalist system implemented by successive regimes continues to ask Nigerians to “be patient” with their so-called reforms. Yet in every sector of the economy, the ruling elites cannot point to any major reform that has meaningfully improved the conditions of the working masses. Every succeeding regime has proven worse than the one before, always blaming its failures on its predecessors while making empty promises that turn out to be mere mirages.

This year’s Independence Day, like many before it, meets Nigerians with more severe living conditions, deepening insecurity, rising exploitation, and now the acute scarcity of cooking gas and petrol has compounded by strike actions from the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN) in response to the unjust sacking of 800 of its members by the Dangote Refinery.

The current Tinubu government has not charted a different path. In terms of policy, it has only deepened the same neoliberal attacks imposed by past regimes, dictated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank.

Fake Figures, Real Suffering

Tinubu’s much-publicised economic indicators only expose the fraud of the capitalist programme. The regime recently undertook a “rebasing” of key statistics such as the GDP, inflation, and unemployment and designed not to reflect reality but to deceive. For instance, before the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) rebased the Consumer Price Index, headline inflation in December 2024 stood at 34.8%, with food inflation at nearly 40%. After rebasing, the January 2025 figures suddenly dropped to 24.48% for headline inflation and 26.08% for food inflation. Prices in the markets did not fall; the change was purely statistical manipulation.

GDP figures were equally inflated from ₦277.5 trillion in 2024 to ₦372.8 trillion after rebasing. But perhaps the most ridiculous adjustment was that of the unemployment rate, which dropped from over 33% to just 4.3%. A figure that laughably suggests Nigeria has a better employment situation than the US, UK, or Germany, and even better than countries with similar populations like Brazil and Pakistan, from which even Nigeria imports basic goods. The Nigeria Labour Congress (NLC) rightly described the figures as “fabricated and misleading.”

The government claims these rebased figures will guide policy and attract investors. In reality, under these false calculations and the continuation of corrupt capitalist programmes, the regime will only plunge more Nigerians into economic disaster.

Already, during Tinubu’s electioneering, that is under the APC government of President Buhari, the NBS reported that 133 million Nigerians lived in multidimensional poverty. That figure is expected to have worsened under these imperialist policies of petrol price hikes and currency devaluation, which have made the living conditions of many Nigerians worse.

Neoliberal Attacks, Social Crisis

Since 1999, the working masses have borne the brunt of ruinous capitalist policies. The ruling elites have widened the gulf between rich and poor. While politicians and public office holders live in obscene luxury, the working people are condemned to penury. Many homes face the daily battle of finding food, rather than any thought of celebrating “independence.” The tragic deaths of over 70 Nigerians in stampedes at food distribution centres in Anambra, Oyo, and Abuja last December illustrate the desperation brought about by hunger and poverty.

The Tinubu regime has also been marked by intensified repression of activists, journalists, and critics of its neoliberal agenda. The arrest of EndBadGovernance protesters like Daniel Akande, whose only “crime” was protesting against hunger in the land, shows how the government uses state repression to silence dissent against its anti-people policies.

The coming period will see the working masses drained further through endless taxation. The regime has turned state institutions into instruments for extracting revenue from the poor. The police, instead of protecting lives, have been reduced to revenue collectors, forcing Nigerians to pay for tinted glass permits and the Central Motor Register (CMR), both renewed yearly. Customs, immigration, and even telecommunication companies are imposing new tariffs and levies, regardless of the unbearable burdens already crushing ordinary Nigerians. This is nothing short of economic suffocation.

Education, Power, and the Betrayal of Development

Education remains in deep crisis under Tinubu’s capitalist “reforms.” The much-touted student loan programme (NELFund) has only paved the way for astronomical increases in tuition fees across federal universities. The reality is that thousands of working-class students cannot afford these fees, nor do the loans cover their needs. For example, the University of Benin recently announced that over 5,000 students would be barred from writing their exams for failure to pay fees. This scenario is replicated across campuses nationwide, where thousands of young people are being denied their right to education simply because they cannot afford skyrocketing tuition and other charges. It makes complete nonsense of the so-called NELFund programme, which the government touted as a solution but has instead been riddled with corrupt practices, bureaucratic bottlenecks, and mismanagement by the agency. Rather than easing the burden on students, the scheme has only deepened frustration and further exposed the regime’s anti-poor policies. Meanwhile, UNICEF reports that 18.3 million Nigerian children are already out of school. The highest number in the world, showing that the commercialisation of education is driving more poor children out of classrooms.

The story is no different in the power sector. Nigeria is blessed with abundant resources, yet the people live in darkness while billions vanish into corrupt deals. From Obasanjo’s $16 billion power project that produced nothing, to Buhari’s $2 billion Presidential Power Initiative with Siemens, which promised 25,000 megawatts by 2025 but has left generation at less than 4,000 MW. The people have only witnessed looting and failure.

Every budget cycle allocates the lion’s share to “defense and security,” justified as necessary to combat insecurity. Yet insecurity has worsened. Amnesty International reports that 10,217 people were killed by bandits in the past two years alone, despite defense spending swallowing nearly 10% of the national budget. This makes clear that the billions spent on defence serve not the people’s safety but the interests of the ruling class.

The Way Forward: Struggle and Unity of the Working Masses

For 65 years, the Nigerian working masses have endured false promises, manipulation, and repression under capitalist regimes. The current crises of inflation, joblessness, hunger, insecurity, collapsing education, and endless taxation are not accidental but inevitable products of a corrupt capitalist system built on exploitation and agreement to imperialist institutions.

The Nigerian Labour Congress (NLC) and the Trade Union Congress (TUC) must recognise this reality and abandon their docile posture. They must rise to the task of organising mass resistance against the neoliberal attacks of the Tinubu regime and the capitalist elite.

The way forward lies in the unity and struggle of the working people for a socialist alternative. This means fighting for the renationalization of key industries and resources under democratic workers’ control, redirecting the nation’s wealth toward education, healthcare, infrastructure, and the needs of the masses. Only through the overthrow of capitalism and the building of a workers’ government can Nigeria’s independence become real independence not in name, but in the material liberation of its people.