Coup or no coup, democracy is endangered by capitalist policies and attacks on democratic rights

By Aj. Dagga Tolar

DON’T BE DECEIVED, COUP OR NO COUP. DEMOCRACY IS ENDANGERED BY CAPITALIST POLICIES AND ATTACKS ON DEMOCRATIC RIGHTS

ONLY THE WORKING MASSES CAN GENUINELY ACT TO DEFEND DEMOCRACY

Bourgeois apologists have rode the current coup scare to the high heavens as a “threat to democracy”. At the same time, the Tinubu regime had engaged in a play of semantics, stating merely that the initial 16 military officers were arrested on the grounds of acts of indiscipline related to “promotion exercises in the military”. The response of the presidency through its spokesperson Bayo Onunuga was that “We need to wait for facts, evidence, not rumours”. 

Was there a coup attempt or an intention to plot or execute a coup? Have officers not been arrested, what evidence was relied upon to make the arrest? The Movement for a Socialist Alternative calls for an open trial of all officers arrested, and insists on the right of all accused to fair trial, right of response and legal representation. We also reject in totality the attempt to criminalise reporting on a coup and the falsehood that such reports “can destroy the country’s reputation and economy”.(https://punchng.com/coup-reports-scaring-investors-hurting-economy-presidency/#google_vignette)

In reality, it is the other way round. It is the policies of the Tinubu regime and its continued failure at governance, in relation to meeting the needs and aspirations of the working masses, that is unnerving the country and teetering it on the edge. 

One can therefore not help but wonder how the Fourth Republic has lasted over six rounds of general elections from its inception in 1999. It is clear that, placed under review; it will certainly not earn a pass mark from the working masses, not with the dissatisfaction with the whole experiment of bourgeois democracy, with all of its betrayal of expectations and worsening living conditions of the working masses. 

The real threat and danger to democracy is the failure of the ruling elites since the inception of the Fourth Republic in May 1999 to put the welfare of the working masses as the basis of governance in the polity. The very character of bourgeois democracy is that it is a dictation, the dictatorship of capital and big business owners to ride roughshod over the livelihood of the working masses, while amassing excessive wealth to itself at the expense of the daily toil and sweat of workers. This is also a consequence of the fact that all the arms and organs of the state share an unalloyed commitment to capitalism, which places the greed for profit first and above the wellbeing of the working masses.

And on this score the Tinubu regime must readily be pronounced as guilty. It is the fiercest in terms of attacks on the living conditions of the working masses, since the dictatorship of the Babangida military regime with its complete surrender of the country’s economy as a capitalist haven. All of Tinubu’s economic policies of deregulation and devaluation of the currency, has left the working masses worse off than ever imagined. 

The statistics are glaring for all to behold: a mass unemployment figure recalibrated to read only 4.3% and between 25% to 30% of the supposed 118 million labour force earning less than the current minimum wage of N70, 000, just above $46 at the average exchange rate. Add to this the fact that there are four to five or even more dependents for every single worker, you see a clearer situation of the dire state the country is in.

The Economy In A Free Fall Nose Dive Into The Abyss

The “subsidy is gone” pronouncement by Tinubu shot the pump price of fuel into the sky with an increase of over 500%, imposing a galloping inflation on nearly all goods and services. The official inflation figure is 18.2% with prices of rent and food stuffs soaring into the sky. The VAT rate was incremented from the previous 5% to 7.5%. Part of a new tax regime that puts more money in the pocket of the Tinubu regime with little or nothing to show for it. This was combined with an obnoxious banking extraction fee from savings accounts on every daily transaction, milking and enriching bank owners. 

Fees increase in schools both private and public, with a loan scheme only accessible to a few, not to mention the infrastructural deficit and the scandalous inadequate public funding of education. This explains why no Nigerian University is ranked among the “top 1,000 of the Quacquarelli Symonds World University Rankings, with the 2026 edition released on June 19, 2025, once again excluding all 297 Nigerian universities from the global elite list”. (https://punchng.com/egypt-south-africa-universities-beat-nigeria-at-global-qs-rankings/)

Electricity generation is at the mere figure of 5,801 MW and distribution capacity not more than 4,000MW. The Tinubu regime effected a 250% electricity price hike, introduced apartheid-like distribution system of different Bands, with those in Band ‘A’ paying more and enjoying electricity supply with the larger population assumed correctly to be unable to afford electricity condemned to darkness and constant power outages. This is aside from the fact that 45% of the population, a figure of 90 million, do not even have access to electricity. 

The devaluation of the Naira further weakened the country’s currency, with the supposed goal of attracting foreign investors not having paid off. If anything, the manufacturing sector has been further wrecked and made worse off from its previous precarious state. And Francis Meshioye, the president of the Manufacturers Association of Nigeria (MAN) gives a more vivid insider’s picture when he states that the “mounting pressure from high inflation, a depreciating naira, rising interest rates, escalating electricity tariffs, record-low sales, a multiplicity of taxes and levies, and serious security concerns. The sector has been under siege”. (https://www.thisdaylive.com/2025/11/02/https-www-thisdaylive-com-2025-11-02-nigerias-manufactor-still-gasping-for-breadth/). “You can imagine what it means for a business to produce goods that consumers can no longer afford. It becomes a vicious cycle. The more costs rise, the fewer people buy, and the fewer jobs can be sustained”. 

There you have it, all of the neoliberal economic policies of the Tinubu regime have done more harm than good to the economy, and it is undermining the productive sector. This has also been translated into unending attacks on living conditions on all fronts for the working masses. Only a tiny layer of individuals, big business owners and the circle of cronies of the Tinubu regime have benefitted from these policies and of course think otherwise, declaring that the Tinubu regime is indeed working for the greater good of all of us in the country. 

Apologists like journalist Bayo Onanuga, barely some three months ago alleged that “haters of Nigeria’s progress are banding together to overthrow an administration that has been the most focused, most transformative in our history.” (https://guardian.ng/news/presidential-aide-onanuga-alleges-plot-to-overthrow-tinubu-govt/). 

This was before any coup scare. But even ignoring that, we must state categorically that there has been nothing whatsoever “transformative” about Tinubu’s policy, the same old neoliberal programme that has been unleashed on the country in all of its ferocious form by Babaginda’s military dictatorship in the mid 1980s and by all succeeding regimes since, in one form or another, with no positive result whatsoever. This policy is now repackaged and can offer any other result than to further entrench the neocolonial appendage status of the Nigerian economy to the US, Western and Chinese domination.

This is the threat and the cause of the growing dissatisfaction of the working masses with the Tinubu regime. As well as its complete failure on the economy, the regime has not performed any better in any other field of policy. And it has stubbornly refused to beat a retreat, instead doubling down on all its mistakes. This also dictates its attitude to the question of democratic rights and the polity. 

The Criminalisation Of Protest

30 Minors were detained for over 90 days for partaking in #EndbadGovernanceprotest in August 2024 before being put on trial for treason, with the only evidence being the flying of Russian flag at a protest. It took a huge worldwide outcry and backlash against the regime before the President intervened and the spurious charges were dropped. Even so, eleven activists including Daniel Akande, AbdulsalamZubbairu, Adaraloye Michael Lenin, AdeyemiAbayomi, Angel Love Innocent, Bashir Bello,Buhari Lawal, Mosiu Sodeeq, NuradeenKhamis, Opaluwa Simon, and Suleiman Yakubuare are still undergoing a treason trial for simply having exercised their democratic right to protest. We demand that all charges be dropped and adequate compensation be paid, and for all those still held to be released forthwith.

But this trampling of democratic rights is not seen as a “threat to democracy” by the apologists of the regime, nor do they see the six months suspension of both the governor and state assembly in River state by the President, and the appointment of a sole administrator, who wields maximum power and is freely spending the resources of the state without any organ to check or question him. This singular act is an attack on democracy in all letters of the word. The President went ahead to exercise powers the constitution didn’t grant to him.

Yet none of this is presented by the bourgeois press or seen by these elites as undemocratic and constituting dangers to democracy. If anything they are applauding the Tinubu regime for every misstep enroute to amassing maximum powers to himself. He is acclaimed as “the master of the game” to have made it to the office of the presidency without resting on any existing wing of the ruling class, military or otherwise, but built his own machine, and thus fit to impose his will on the whole of the ruling class.

Senator Ali Ndume on Tinubu, says he doesn’t “mind if he acts like a dictator”. For sure the game is already on for a monolithic dominance of the polity. And the working masses are not deceived. Increasingly the authoritarian bent of the Tinubu regime, already made manifest in the economy is now fully in open display. 

APC Is Made The Dominant & Only Functional Political Party 

Multi-party democracy has become a complete mockery, with All Progressive Congress (APC) becoming the singular dominant functional political party. Inside of the APC, the party structure is in complete subjugation to the Tinubu machine, with no other wing of the ruling class in the APC daring to challenge it. All of the (former President) Buhari loyalists, even before he passed on, have either stepped aside, been replaced or committed their loyalty to Tinubu. The APC is in a state where not a single silent murmuring or a whisper can be aired inside of the party against Tinubu, which is why the likes of El-Rufai have left the APC completely for the African Democratic Congress (ADC)

But this dominance is not just inside the APC. It has also extended its tentacles to other bourgeois opposition parties with cronies that do Tinubu’s bidding. The main political parties at the last general elections; the People Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP) have all suffered internal combustion to render them incapable of fronting any strong campaign against the regime’s bid to retain power come 2027.

The PDP from day one had Nyesom Wike, the FCT (Federal Capital Territory) minister who maintains his membership of the PDP, but in reality acts in all regards to ensure that the PDP doesn’t effectively function to disrupt or constitute a threat to the Tinubu regime. Labour Party leader Abure, despite a judgement against his leadership of the LP, has refused to quit and continues to parade himself as chairman, and by so doing is bringing to a near nullity all other efforts put in place by the trade unions to reclaim the LP and reposition it as an opposition to the APC.

And the beneficiary of this disorderliness in these parties is no one than Tinubu himself, with the 2027 elections in focus. Former PDP presidential candidate Atiku has officially left PDP, sensing that everything will be placed in his path to prevent him from being the presidential flag bearer of the party; the same applies to Peter Obi, candidate for Labour in the last elections, who is not acting in any sense as a member of the LP.

By Carrot Or Stick

The state and the governors are also falling in line. Of the original 11 governors of the PDP at the last election, they are down to 8. The latest twosome to bow down, within 24 hours of each other were Peter Mbah, governor of Enugu, and DouyeDiri, governor of Bayelsa state. The first to kick it off was Governor Sheriff Oborevwori of Delta state, alongside his predecessor, Ifeanyi Okowa, the Vice Presidential candidate of the PDP in the 2023 Presidential election. Following on their heels was Umo Eno, governor of Akwa Ibom. 

It is therefore not impossible that the APC may be going onto the 2027 general elections with close to 30 out of 36 governors if not even more. Fubura of River state, though returned back to office after the six months suspension has already been muscled, and will act according to the instructions of Nyesom Wike. 

Dr. Ijeoma Arodiogbu, the APC National Vice Chairman (South-East), is likely to be joined by the governors of Plateau, Taraba, Rivers (Siminalayi) Fubara, and Abia State in seeking to bring together all “people of goodwill who believe in President Bola Tinubu’sRenewed Hope Agenda”(https://punchng.com/hurricane-tinubu-taraba-plateau-adamawa-govs-face-defection-dilemma/) . For the governors, the “Renewed Hope” referred to is the hope of a return back to office for a second tenure. They will deliver votes to Mr. President and in return Mr. President issues them a directive for a free ride back to power. The carrot of a second term guaranteed on the APC ticket is too good to turn down. Act otherwise, and sticks will be deployed. The Forum of PDP state Chairman is quite succinct on this, stating that the APC is employing “undemocratic and desperate efforts to intimidate PDP leaders, including governors, senators, and lawmakers, into defecting.”

Tinubu has done his homework and shared his largesse with the states with increased revenue allocation, close to double what they were earning before. Thus, they are all collective beneficiaries of the attacks of the regime on the working masses. And this is also where he can easily hit any of them below the belt, if they dare not to do his bidding. There is nothing on the ground in these states to show for increased funding, and there will therefore be misdeeds to “unearth”, if anyone tries to work against his ambition. The question of returning to power by all means is on the agenda of the Tinubu regime, and the governors simply queue to get in line, by carrot or stick.

The Working Masses – Not The Centre Of Governance Or Concern For The Ruling Elites

From all of the above it is more than clear that not just the Tinubu regime, but the entire crop of the ruling class, even after 26 years of bourgeois democracy, have brought us nowhere near any improvement in the living conditions of the working masses. There is no denying the fact that no wing of the ruling class is near to understanding that without breaking the country free from the capitalist cycle that has condemned us since colonialism to be an appendage of international capital and just produce raw materials, we will not be able to turn things around.

Capitalism prioritizes profit making. The question of welfare and improving the lot of the working masses is not on its agenda. Workers are available to be freely exploited. This much is revealed by the last PENGASSEN strike action by oil workers in the Dangote owned refinery, with 800 workers sacked for indicating their intention to join the union. 

It follows therefore that workers and indeed the lot of the working masses and life will never matter to the ruling elites. Power is only a means to entrench their class interest. The working masses can only, in turn, define and defend their own interest. To do just this requires organization: the trade unions must be won back to defending the interest of workers, and the necessary energy must be spent to build a political force for the working masses. The labour and Civil Society Coalition (LASCO) must be rebuilt, uniting all socialists, and pro-labour civil society and in concert with workers provide the necessary leadership for the struggle of the working masses, not just against policies of the Tinubu regime, but against capitalism, developing an alternative path to rescue Nigeria from its continuous drift to the abyss.

If anything, we are closer to the Nigeria of 1983 than ever before, when Shehu Shagari’s NPN swept the polls and was re-elected back to office, and three months later, the military struck in the name of a rescue mission. Then, from 1984 to 1999 the military failed in all ramifications to lay any new foundation for rebuilding Nigeria. The same military birthed the Fourth Republic and must therefore take responsibility for all of the failures. They turned down the recommendation of the Cookey commission, established by the military regime in 1986, for Socialism to be adopted as the ideology of the country. The Babangida military dictatorship took the country on cruise in a transition aimed at enabling him to secure power for himself. Of course the working masses resisted this move, and in their millions opposed the June 12, 1993 election annulment forcing him out of power, only for Abacha to take over as military dictator and attempting do the same thing.

It is the failure of the civilian wing of the ruling class in power that lays the basis for a coup at all times against it. The Tinubu regime will at any time have a majority of the working masses opposed to its continued rule over the country, but this opposition is restrained and limited given the organizational weakness of the working masses and the absence of a mass revolutionary party and leadership.

This weakness does not now hand over the right to the military to claim that it is acting on behalf of the working masses. We in the MSA completely state our opposition to a coup, whether rumoured or otherwise, but this must not be misinterpreted to mean any trust whatsoever in the Tinubu regime. But we insist that it is the working masses that must get organised to take on the Tinubu regime and win political power and with it commence the socialist transformation of the country’s economy and polity.

This is why the working masses will not fold its hands, it will not accept any collective blame, nor will it welcome any ban of political activities as is the case when the military comes to power and then turns even more heavily against the living conditions of the masses. History here and in other places proves that the working masses must place their trust only on themselves.

Whether there was a coup or not, will not prevent others from giving it another shot. The MSA will boldly at any such a time or situation reject any such military putsch and call on the working masses to chart an independent path and not surrender our destiny or wellbeing to the adventurist pursuits of military officers

This is why only the working masses can preserve democracy and democratic rights by coming into the arena of politics with the full strength of its millions of members to take on the tiny numbers in the billionaire club, who have interpreted democracy to solely mean defending the interest of the bourgeoisie.