THEATRICS & ATTACKS OF THE TINUBU REGIME, INEC & BOURGEOIS OPPOSITIONS!

ONLY THE WORKING MASSES CAN ORGANISE TO END THEIR SUFFERINGS!

Aj. Dagga Tolar

There is nothing more important to the Tinubu regime with regards to the polity other than the 2027 General Elections, not even the continuous attacks and killings of innocent Nigerians by non-state armed groups is strong enough to earn the necessary action from the Tinubu regime as a basis of reassuring Nigerians that the government is on top of the issue. When it comes to the question of security, Nigerians are condemned to a state of “On Your Own”, a complete state of helplessness.

The recent attack and killing of 28 persons in Angwan Rukuba in Jos, Plateau state, is a good example. The president, Bola Tinubu, in full emperor mode, had the families and victims brought to him at the airport tarmac in Jos, and offered the scant phrase that “this will not repeat itself”. The same phrase has been repeated over and over again. Since then, there have been renewed attacks in the Shanga Local Government Area of Kebbi State, carried out by a group called Mamudawa. On April 5, gunmen launched an attack in Benue North Central, Nigeria, killing 17 people. A day earlier, 11 people were killed, with over 50 houses burnt down in Nasarawa state, a reprisal attack following the earlier killing of two people. In Zamfara state, bandits kidnapped 150 residents from Kurfa Ɗanya and Kurfan Magaji villages. And more attacks are expected.

Even the publication of a so-called list of terrorism financiers is all the action to be expected. With elections around the corner, the Tinubu regime will not do anything to hurt its chances; it may be primitively even calculating to benefit from this state of insecurity, as a means of cutting down votes against it from all of these areas and theatres not categorised by it as a support base for it.

The supposed crowding of the Airwaves and toying with setting up a state police, ultimately will not solve or resolve the question of insecurity, nor will arming the police or the military, without return to the fundamental root cause of the growing state of insecurity in the country, which demands the need to take concrete state to break the country free from the lock grip of neoliberal capitalist policies that undermines the productive capability of the country making it completely dependent on imperialism to meet the needs of the working masses. This is the root cause of the mass unemployment in the country, which constantly feeds the numbers for more and more working-class youth to turn to banditry, kidnapping and engaging in killings of one another to displace others.

The Tinubu regime, like other before it, cannot break from this capitalist stranglehold that it is part of, and stir a new direction for the country that will allow it take full control of the wealth and resources of the country, manage them to meet the needs of the working masses, by taking the step to develop the means of production to the full capacity in all sectors of the economy. The working masses are in the worst of state; all indices and statistics concerning all of the defining parameters with which to measure the standard of living are all in the negatives for the working masses. From fuel price, to electricity, to food, education, health, and housing have all been priced beyond the means and earnings of the working masses.

Yet for the Tinubu regime, nothing else for now matters, except the desperation to return to power. Not even the wanton killing of innocent Nigerians, the defiance of the order of Mr. President that it will not repeat itself, is enough to see a change of attitude by government so as to take away the advantage from the increasing groups of armed non-state actors of bandits, kidnappers and terrorist groups.

For Tinubu, there must be no distraction from here onward. Their ultimate goal is 2027. For the Tinubu regime and the APC, Tinubu is the trump card, and no danger whatsoever must come to him. Can this explain why Mr. President didn’t deem it necessary to go meet the victims of the last attack in Jos, and had them brought to him at the airport? If the President who has under his thumb the entire state apparatus and instruments of coercion is un willing to bring such a weight to play in a visiting victims, you can begin to imagine the helplessness of the working masses.

And as Tinubu himself has hinted, everything is on course. If he could win in 2023 even with all of the efforts against him, when he was not in power, now with all of the resources and state power in his grip, they ooze with confidence that nothing can be done to stop it from claiming victory at the 2027 polls. Both the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), headed by Joash Amupitan and the judiciary on face value are interpreted to be conducting their affairs with independence and not under the influence of the executive, it is obvious to all discerning mind that they operate under coded rules and guides that defines all the grounds of their actions and inactions to benefits the APC and the Tinubu agenda to return itself into power come 2027.

The bourgeois Opposition- the PDP & ADC

The Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)  has already been consumed from the inside, all courtesy of Nyesom Wike, the administrator of Abuja FCT, who continues to be permanently grateful to Tinubu for appointing him into his administration to “continue to chop”, following his two terms in office as governor of Rivers state. Though not an official card-carrying member of the APC, he acts in every way to defend the interests of the APC. He has taken full control of the PDP with the singular purpose of crippling it from the inside and making it non-relevant as an opposition party against the Tinubu regime. The so call recent convention and following a court declaration that annulled the leadership of Tanimu Turaki and the Seyi Makinde-backed faction of the PDP, it is clear that the judiciary will intervene in a way and manner that will help also make them irrelevant as the clock is already ticking.

This is the foresight that saw a majority of opposition candidates step out to shop for an alternative party that has birthed the new opposition, the African Democratic Congress (ADC). It was the same factional disputes paralyzing activities in the PDP that replicate itself in the Labour Party.

Even with all indication that the working masses are tired of the Tinubu regime, and will want it out of power immediately, the option of the least path of resistance means that all attention on focus should be placed on the general elections of 2027. This is the thinking of the bourgeois opposition that has now seen all the big weights of the last general elections seeking to unite their strengths within the ADC.

Of course, while the ADC is now made up of Abubakar Atiku, Peter Obi, Kwankwaso, Ameachi and others. The possibility that they will be torn apart over the choice of who flies the sole ticket of the party is a possible scenario that will undermine its bid to have a rerun of the 2015 elections when APC defeated an incumbent party in power.

The Achilles heel for the ADC could be a defeat for Atiku or Obi at the primaries, will we see either of them stepping out to stand as a candidate in any other party. Already, Atiku has stated that this is his last run at the presidency, a clear euphemism that he will not step down. He has even stated that the coalition will enhance his chances at the election, banking on others to support him and not step out of the ADC, if he wins the presidential ticket.

But Obi left the PDP for the Labour Party in the 2023 elections, seeing that the stakes were clearly in Atiku’s favour to win the ticket. Will the same thing happen again? Of course, the Tinubu regime is banking on the same thing to happen again, which explains why when Obi left the LP, suddenly, there was the Supreme Court’s judgement in favour of the Nenadi Usman-led faction as oppose to the Julius Abure as the leaders of the LP. Will Obi agree to be a running mate to Atiku? This is a scenario that will be opposed by the Obidient movement that is completely dyed in the wool followers for Obi to be President candidate and nothing more.

The Kwankwaso factor also cannot be dismissed. Kwankwaso, though the last to have joined the ADC, also points out through its Kwankwasiyya movement, that only Obi and Kwankwanso have “organic followers”. The ADC is set for a war to the finish within itself. With Obi clearly not willing to step down and be Vice President on an Atiku ticket, but Kwankwaso willing to be Vice President on a ticket with Obi.

While this is playing out, again, factional disputes have broken out over the leadership of the ADC. Nafiu Bala, who once acquiesced to the leadership of Senator David Mark, has now come forward. And INEC has not wasted time to come on board the script to declare its non-recognition of any of the claimants as the leadership of the party on his its interpretation of judicial pronouncement, which automatically sends the ADC into limbo, making any actions so taken by it regards to preparation for the 2027 elections null and void.

We see the “the hand of Esau”, but “the voice of Jacob” is not hiding; it is the Tinubu regime that will benefit from the emerging scenario. Is a Benin Republic recently held general elections scenario wherein the main opposition party, the Democrats, was not listed on the ballot, having not won a suppose 20% in the parliamentary elections held in January going to be what will also play out here. The circumstances though not the same; the end result is to ensure a landslide victory for the Tinubu-led APC.

Lessons from the Abuja Municipal Elections

Are the recent Abuja Municipal elections any indication of what will play out in the 2027 General Elections? It is clearly an eye-opener to what 2027 will look like, with a total of 837,338 registered voters; only 65,197 voters were accredited to vote in the municipal elections. And of this figure, only 40,295 were needed by the incumbent, Christopher Maikalangu of the APC, to return him to power.

A figure that translates to a mere 7.8%, a clear indication of a majority of over 92% unwilling to come out and cast their votes. It follows that a figure close to 800,000 didn’t see anything in terms of its performance worthy of their time to come out and vote. It is not far-fetched that the working masses also didn’t see the opposition as any different, not with Wike in full control of the PDP and all out to ensure a victory for the APC to further boost his credentials with Tinubu that Abuja will be delivered come 2027.

The Working Masses and the 2027 General Elections

Can we then draw from the above that the working masses will conduct themselves in the same manner that an unconscious Boycott tactic and mode is already in full operation, a siddon look attitude, and that practically nothing can be done to shake the resolve of the Tinubu regime to return itself to power by whatever means is possible. For Tinubu and the APC, outside of its slogan of “RENEWED HOPE”, which has since 2023 functioned to benefit the tiny circle of members of the billionaire club, especially those aligned with the Tinubu regime. It has been a case of complete Nothing Nothing for the working masses as they are faced with attacks from all corners. While Tinubu publicly critic the privatization of the Steel sector carried by Obasanjo under the supervision of Atiku and El-Rufia, nothing has been done to reverse it, except to run the joke that in the same way they failed, they will also fail with the attempt to privatize (take over) the ADC.

From the fuel price increase that has now been made worse by the war against Iran by the US and Israel, and as expected, the increase in sales and increase in price does not in any way benefit the working masses. The bogey of a private-run refinery that is supposed to end fuel shortages and queues is a ruse. As fuel prices have increased to above N1300 in some parts of the country. The Dangote Refinery has not been in any favour of the working masses; it functions to make profit. Now the country is back to importing fuel for domestic usage. And yet the Tinubu regime doesn’t feel the need to take the necessary step to revamp the existing refineries or even build new ones that will be managed and controlled democratically to meet the needs and expectations of the working masses.

From the devaluation of the currency to bank reforms, to tax reforms, all the programmes are aimed at shortchanging the working masses. All of these should be enough to organise against it, but can anyone be sure that the working masses will support these candidates, even if they succeed in uniting their efforts? The opposition is counting on the votes of the working masses. In the same breath, the APC continues to perfect all of its strategies, with 30 governors already in its kitty, all is set to employ the theatrics of cash and state machinery to ensure that results declared will be in its favour, and steps to even employ the legal instruments to its favour are already fully at play. According to Tinubu, he cannot be intimidated by “the noise making” or the “rascality of a street convention” by the opposition.

It follows, therefore, that the Tinubu regime is not in any sense rattled by the opposition. It is confident already of its victory, and it is only waiting for 2027 to claim its re-election back into power. The APC doesn’t in any sense count on the working masses. The working masses must count only on themselves. This is why we in the Movement for a Socialist Alternative (MSA) say a YES to the fact that “only the working masses can act to halt the Tinubu regime”. They are the only ones that can organise to defeat the Tinubu regime and by so doing fundamentally bring an improvement to their living conditions. Indeed, if the working masses were left on their own, the Tinubu regime would not last another single day in power, not to mention contesting as a candidate in the 2027 General elections. The reason for this is clear, given its utter failure on all scorecards of the economy and polity.

“Don’t Vote for Me If I Fail to Fix Electricity”- Tinubu

Indeed, Tinubu himself had insisted during his campaign for the 2023 elections that if he was unable to fix the electricity sector, he shouldn’t be returned to power come 2027. And there is nothing else that better indicates that he has failed to deliver on this promise than the appropriation of 13 billion naira in the 2025 budget to install solar panels in the Aso Rock, meaning that the Presidency has disconnected itself from the national grid, while the working masses are left to wallow in darkness. But as with all members of the ruling elites, promises are merely to win votes and once in power, they retract from their words and promises.

Instead of taking steps to end privatisation of the electricity sector and return it back to public ownership, this time under democratic control and management of workers and consumers, and take steps to reclaim the trillions that governments has freely handed without any positive impact on the electricity sector. .  

Nigeria ranks as the world “worst electricity poverty” with 85 million not even connected to the national grid. Since the under value sales of the sector for $2.23 billion, which was equal to N3.62 billion in 2013. The country has paid out trillions as subsidies to the sector. Under Buhari alone, the sum of N2.3 Trillion was cuffed out from the public treasury and handed out to these private sector sharks, with electricity still hovering around the same 4, 000 megawatts that was handed over in 2013. For the first quarter of 2025, another N1.8 trillion was handed over.

Now the Tinubu regime has again announced another N3.3 Trillion agreement plan to be paid out to the same individuals, who have not delivered on anything since 2013, when they took over. This doesn’t include the uncountable trillions of Naira that Nigerians have been paying for the delivery of nothing but darkness by the Distribution and Generating companies. And as we speak, another increase in electricity tariff is on the table. It is clear from the above that privatisation is nothing but a conduit pipe to milk and fleece the working masses and the treasury, and the Tinubu regime is busy acting out the same script, lacking the courage to reclaim and renationalise the electricity sector and bring it under public ownership.

What we see in the electricity sector is the very byproduct of capitalism. It functions to appropriate wealth from the working masses, and in the case of Nigeria, to also milk the public treasury to enrich private profiteers. Already, the same thing is now been canvassed for private run refineries to enjoy the same free lunch subsidy, not in any sense to make fuel available and cheap, but to fatter and enrich themselves further. For the working masses: “Subsidy is gone”, it is bleeding the economy, but for the Bosses subsidy is alive and kicking, enabling the capitalist Bosses and private profiteers to smile their way into freely looting public treasury, for services they will never render.

The working masses are therefore left with no other option than to come into the understanding and consciousness that the struggle to improve their lot is the struggle to organise to uproot capitalism and imperialism and the ruling elites that serves it and preserves its rule and dominance over the economy.

Boycott the Elections?

Let us not belabour this. The working masses have already chosen this path. From the analysis above on the Abuja Municipal elections, it is clear that boycott tactics is already in full operation, and increasingly more and more voters will choose to vote with their feet, sitting down at home and not be bothered about stepping out to vote in the elections. But boycott electoral tactics as an unconscious act of the working masses refusing to step out and vote on their own is not enough to shake the ruling class. If anything, the Tinubu regime will benefit from it, since it will not encounter any hindrance, availing itself of the opportunity to perfect all necessary machinery to win the 2027 elections.

A boycott electoral tactics on the part of the working masses to be meaningful must go beyond the refusal to go and vote; it must be part of the process of consciously posing an alternative not just to Tinubu but as well as to capitalism.  In this case, the building of a mass movement and opposition to the Tinubu regime and its neoliberal economic policies, but also to organise the necessary strength to remove it from power, posing a clear Socialist Alternative programme.

In the face of this possible mass boycott of the elections, there are supposedly left-leaning individuals exploring the possibility of strengthen their contact with the working masses and seeking to contest in the 2027 general elections, but no such gains can be made that can then impact positively on building and strengthening the struggle of the working masses against the Tinubu regime done on an individual basis. Such an intervention in the face of the mass discontentment with the electoral practice must be done within the framework of an organization, setting itself out to make gains, recruit members to the ideas of Marxism, and demonstrating the power of the leadership of the working class, and its capability to lead the working masses to accomplish a socialist revolution. And also warning the working masses ahead and preparing them for the struggles ahead post-election period.

So, we in the MSA are not opposed to any supposed left-leaning individuals exploring the possibility of strengthening their contact with the working masses by seeking to contest in the 2027 general elections; even with the possibility of likely victory is extremely minimal, given the changed scenario and climate that is far different from what existed in 2023. The #EndSAR protest unleashed a force of youthful mass energy that trooped behind Obi in the Labour Party. This is currently not there. And the labour leaders are not in the mood for canvassing or playing the same role of organising workers to join the LP. It doesn’t now mean that a window of contesting or building the labour Party cannot rear up its head going forward, and that this shouldn’t be explored, but as stated above, it must be on the grounds of running and put forward a Socialist Alternative manifesto directly to the working masses and calling for all efforts in building an independent Working people party.

The African Action Congress, led by Omoyele Sowore, can also not be ignored as an electoral platform, and the gains to be possible made in an electoral contest for those who seek to build a party of revolution for the working masses. But our experience in the electoral plane, both in the National Conscience Party and the Socialist Party of Nigeria, must not be taken for granted. We do not go into elections thinking that the making of revolution by the working masses can be done away with, or 2-stage the process to first take control of the bourgeois state organs, and then the revolution. When in reality the bourgeois state is structured at all time to undermine the interest of the working masses. Interesting ours is even a colonial creation, which means that there is imperialism to still contend with. This is why the making of revolution by the working masses cannot be 2-staged or done away or made synonymous to taking over power and taking control of the bourgeois state organs and structures. The whole essence of making a revolution is to have the bourgeois state “withered away” and “weeded out” replaced with the organised force of the working masses as the new workers’ state; with “all officials elected”, earning the wages of an average skill worker and subject to immediate recall, an armed people as opposed to a people Army, all acting for the interest of the working masses and for the working masses, both nationally and internationally.

Can Atiku, Obi, Kwankwanso, and Ameachi provide leadership for a Mass Movement Against the Ruling Class.

There is no denying that nearly all of the leading members of the bourgeois opposition are desperate for power and want to take over from Tinubu. Atiku has already been quoted to have stated that: “2027 will not be about aides, nor propaganda, nor recycled talking points that decide Nigeria’s future, it will be the Nigerian people”. It can be assumed that it is already testing the waters with the organised protests against INEC’s interference in the leadership crisis in the ADC.  The working masses are not deceived by the organised media front page protest of bourgeois candidates calling on INEC to be neutral or to act rightly. INEC has already insisted that it is acting in obedience to judicial pronouncements. And Tinubu has fully responded with its statement that: “we cannot submit to disobedience of a lawful order of a court”.

It is obvious from this statement that the Tinubu regime will not back down and will play everything to its advantage up to the point that ADC may most likely be disenfranchise from filling candidates. Even if the opposite were to happen, the ADC will only end up with its participation providing credibility for the 2027 General elections and the reelection of Tinubu back to power. Of course for the Tinubu regime, even if the ADC were to end up on the ballot, it is clear it will only allow it on the grounds that it is not capable of preventing the Abuja Municipal elections type situation from repeating itself, and allows it throw its forces and machinery into the field to either effect the necessary rigging process, either through a disbursement of cash or intimidation where necessary to have its declared as winner.

To the above question of providing leadership for a mass movement against the Tinubu regime, we make bold to state that nothing in the history of any of the characters above points to their willingness to come out from the high heavens to consistently lead the masses directly in a struggle against the Tinubu regime. Collectively, as members of the ruling class, they all have their fears of the working masses, and will not endanger the very system they all benefit from. It explains why in the heat of the mass struggle against military dictatorship, M.K.O. Abiola even with the overwhelming mass support and struggle on the street chose to leave the country, and cut a back door deal with the Abacha wing of the ruling class, to clear the way for him by effecting a coup against the Shonekan Interim regime, and then hand over power to him, which never happened, as oppose to relying on strength of the working masses to bring him to power.

The same that is true of Abiola is true of all the above characters. Obi, for example, declined the option to take to the streets, following claims of a rigged electoral process in 2023 elections, with 6 million vote won at the election and could mobilise support on the street. Obi will not now act any differently. This explains why the ADC slogan in the recent organised street protests didn’t raise anything against the Tinubu regime. It follows, therefore, that the Working masses must rely on themselves and their organisations. But a mass movement against the Tinubu regime breaking out between now and before the elections, even if defeated can grow the necessary consciousness to waken a decisive numbers of voters to defeat Tinubu at the polls.

Can the trade unions play any role going forward on behalf of the interests of the working masses? Is the Labour and Civil Society Coalition (LASCO) capable of resurrecting itself and playing any meaningful role as events develop from here going forward? Or is the Joe Ajaero led NLC and Usifo led TUC muscled down? Must we look elsewhere?

The obvious weakness of the left means that all effort and pressure within the mass organisation must have to be asserted. While at the same time encouraging all efforts for the emergence of a Broad Left platform to allow for more cohesive intervention. The MSA is completely committed to a struggle against capitalism, and this will not be possible without the building of a revolutionary party, with millions of the working masses, across all divides, of religion and ethnic nationality.

It is the working masses who would act by coming into the arena of the Struggle. Either before or after the General elections, the working masses ultimately will take to the streets against the Tinubu regime or whatever regime that takes over from it. It is our duty as Marxists to continue to point out the task ahead of the working masses and the way forward. To build up the consciousness that capitalism is the real enemy and only the mighty organised forces of the working masses in their millions can contend with it and break its grip on the economy by wresting political power from the grip of the members of the billionaire club, either as currently represented by Tinubu or any other member of the ruling elites.